It’s not going to be pretty. We will have to accept some inconveniences. Some privileges traditionally taken for granted will become appreciated, valued, missed.
The price of eggs will increase. The cost of housing will stretch beyond the reach of the lower rung of the middle-class social ladder and make an impossible dream for low wealth Americans.
There will be labor shortages, crops loss and many small farms will be pushed out of the market. Rural communities, predominantly agrarian, will experience economic decline, and loss of jobs and services.
The domino effect.
Diminished agricultural output will lead to supply chain disruptions. There will be a scarcity of certain foods, increased demand and increased prices.
Without immigrant workers to plant, cultivate and harvest crops, farmers may suffer significant crop loss, particularly for the labor-intensive production of fruits and vegetables. The fruit smoothie and the egg omelet may become occasional treats rather than a daily choice.
A shift to greater reliance on imports could also increase costs to consumers. Tariffs on imports and transportation, trade policies will add to the cost for consumers.
America without immigrant workers will suffer contractions in agriculture, the housing construction industry and a ripple effect throughout the economy.
But America is resilient and will take measures to counter contractions in these economic sectors.
The decrease in production, leading to a decline in agricultural exports, creates a trade imbalance. It puts America at a competitive disadvantage in global markets.
Pressures from the global trade imbalance may push agriculture toward greater technological investment. Automation and robotics can step up to fill the gap in some agricultural fields.
It’s not a one size fits all solution, and transition will be costly. Small farms, without financial resources, cannot afford mechanization or pay competitive domestic wages. The family farm may fold; depending on the geographic location, the acreage could be sold to real estate developers.
That sale passes the baton of mass deportation economic distress to an industry itself laden with labor shortages and increased material cost.
Immigrant labor makes a significant contribution to the housing construction industry. These unwelcome laborers play a critical role in the fields of roofing, drywall and framing. They often fill labor-intensive, skilled and in-demand positions.
Undocumented immigrants are a substantial portion of the construction workforce. Fifty percent of roofers are immigrants. Drywall labor is similarly dominant in the trade that requires precision and stamina.
Once mass deportation sweeps up the undocumented immigrants, construction delays, reduction in housing inventory and higher building cost will result.
The Feds could take measures to lower interest rates. With lower mortgage rates and a shortages of housing inventory, the resulting seller’s market would be optimum for homeowners and real estate professionals. Economics is a strange creature.
The emotional fervor for mass deportation of immigrants is a “cut off your nose to spite your face” approach. It pursues unsustainable political and emotional goals with the inevitable self-inflicted harm to the economy, society and consumers.
The emotions resulting from fear mongering do not allow room for critical thinking.
The short-term thinking to solve the immigration issue with mass deportation does not consider the long-term fallout on the economy, on consumers, on the small family farms of America.