By Oren Reshef, Washington University in St. Louis; Abhay Aneja, University of California, Berkeley, and Michael Luca, Johns Hopkins University

Labeling businesses as Black-owned can significantly boost their sales, we found in a recent study.

In June 2020, the business-review website Yelp introduced a feature allowing consumers to search for Black-owned restaurants. As professors who study digitization, inequality and the economics of technology, we were interested in understanding its effect. So we analyzed more than two years of data from Yelp.

We found that restaurants labeled as Black-owned saw a 65% increase in online traffic, more searches and calls, and higher sales through food orders and in-person visits. These results suggest that for many Black-owned businesses, a simple change in their visibility can create new opportunities for growth.

However, the impact varied by location. The gains were strongest in politically liberal areas and places with lower levels of implicit racial bias, as measured by regional variation in implicit-association test scores. This suggests that platforms are in part channeling, as opposed to creating, customer demand. Interestingly, white customers drove most of the increase, suggesting the label helped raise awareness of businesses they might not have considered before.

This wasn’t just a 2020 trend – in follow-up analyses, we found similar results among businesses that opted into the feature later. We also collaborated with the online furniture company Wayfair, which launched a “Black Maker” label on its site in 2023, and found that it led to a 57% increase in web traffic. Finally, Yelp rolled out a Latino-owned label on the platform late that year, which led to a similar increase in consumer engagement.

Why it matters

This research has implications for business owners, digital platforms and policymakers. Growing awareness of racial inequality – partially driven by the Black Lives Matter movement, especially after the murder of George Floyd in 2020 — has led to increased corporate and customer interest in supporting minority-owned businesses. It also led many companies to make commitments to promote racial equity.

However, more recently, many companies have dismantled these efforts. For instance, Target recently announced that it was eliminating its program to spotlight Black-owned businesses. Our findings suggest that increasing the visibility of minority ownership – a relatively low-cost change – can substantially improve economic outcomes for Black-owned businesses.

Our results also show that diversity initiatives aren’t just about warm and fuzzy feelings. Businesses should measure and evaluate their impact to ensure their programs are effective. A well-designed program can benefit the bottom line, while a poorly designed one risks being ineffective or even counterproductive.

So it’s important to acknowledge the potential risks. Past research, including some of our own, indicates that revealing racial identity sometimes can lead to discrimination or backlash. While our findings suggest that labeling can have positive effects, a poorly implemented policy can backfire. Yelp’s initiative design empowered users looking to support Black-owned businesses while allowing other users to continue searching in alternative ways.

That means policy design is crucial. What matters isn’t just what information is revealed, but also how it’s communicated. Our analysis shows that customer demand and preferences vary considerably across locations and demographics, meaning that context also matters.

What still isn’t known

While our research suggests that businesses experienced economic benefits from adopting the label, it’s crucial to understand which policy designs work best in the long run. For instance, Yelp’s program used an opt-in feature, which may have contributed to its success.

However, open questions remain. How are platforms affected by labeling businesses? What other types of labels might be impactful, and for which types of businesses? Could some interventions backfire?

Another key question is, which customers respond to racial identity disclosures? Recent advances in data analytics can help companies refine their strategies, making it easier to target the right consumer groups for more effective initiatives.

Ultimately, our study is a step toward understanding how transparency and visibility can shape economic outcomes. It highlights a diversity initiative that has benefited both customers and businesses, and provides a road map for companies that want to design initiatives that matter. And, more broadly, it speaks to a question facing all companies: How can companies better understand and shape their societal footprint?

This article is republished from The Conversation, a nonprofit, independent news organization bringing you facts and trustworthy analysis to help you make sense of our complex world. It was written by: Oren Reshef, Washington University in St. Louis; Abhay Aneja, University of California, Berkeley, and Michael Luca, Johns Hopkins University

Read more:

• A boycott campaign fuels tension between Black shoppers and Black-owned brands – evoking the long struggle for ‘consumer citizenship’
• The backlash against diversity, equity and inclusion in business is in full force − but myths obscure the real value of DEI
• Campus diversity is becoming difficult to measure as students keep their race and ethnicity hidden on college applications

In the past, Oren Reshef has worked as an Economics Research Intern at Yelp. The company did not intervene in the analysis or the publication process of this article.

Michael Luca has done consulting for tech companies including Yelp.

Abhay Aneja does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Feature Image: Photo by Christina @ wocintechchat.com on Unsplash

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By Michael Davis, Missouri University of Science and Technology

If you live in the Philadelphia or Kansas City metro areas, congratulations: The fact that your city made it to the Super Bowl translates to about $200 extra in your pocket.

That’s right – whether the Philadelphia Eagles or the Kansas City Chiefs win the big game on Feb. 9, both cities have scored an economic victory. Research shows that making the playoffs alone is enough to boost personal incomes in the region. And if your team wins, you and your city will get an even bigger boost.

This windfall isn’t coming from increased merchandise sales, as you might expect. Instead, the key driver is happiness. A successful season lifts fans’ moods, which leads – indirectly – to greater spending and productivity.

Why winning pays

I’m a macroeconomist with an interest in sports economics, and my colleague Christian End of Xavier University is a psychologist who specializes in fan behavior. Together, we published two studies combining our areas of expertise: “A Winning Proposition: The Economic Impact of Successful NFL Franchises” and “Team Success, Productivity and Economic Impact.”

In a study using data from the late 20th century and early 21st century, we found that when a team goes from zero to 11 wins – the typical number needed to make the playoffs – its home region sees an average per-person income rise by about US$200 over the year, adjusted for inflation. We also found that winning the Super Bowl was associated with a $33 bonus, again adjusted for inflation.

When you multiply $200 by the 6 million people who live in the Philadelphia metropolitan area and the 2 million in the Kansas City region, it comes out to a whole lot of money overall.

It’s about happiness, not jerseys

If you’ve ever been to a Super Bowl parade, you might assume that the income boost is linked to people spending more on team-related merchandise. But research shows that professional sports teams usually have a small impact on local incomes.

Even hosting the Super Bowl doesn’t seem to do that much: Our research shows that people are better off economically if their local team wins the Super Bowl than if their local area hosts one.

So if people aren’t spending more directly on the team, something else must be going on. Our work pointed to two possible explanations – both having to do with happiness.

First, we hypothesized that happier people tend to spend more. And when people spend more, that money is returned to the population through wages, so people’s incomes rise. The key here is that people are spending more on everything, not just things associated with the sports teams.

Since the football season usually finishes in December, it could be that happy parents who are fans of the local NFL team are spending more on Christmas gifts for their kids. With the Super Bowl stretching later into the winter, loved ones might get nicer flower bouquets and more chocolate for Valentine’s Day when the local team wins the Super Bowl.

The other possible path is through increased productivity. Psychology research has found that happier people are more productive. So as the season progresses and the home team keeps winning, it stands to reason that people in the area will go into work happy and work harder.

Previous research backs up this idea. For example, a 2011 study found that when the home team in Washington performs better, federal regulators are more productive. In places where private businesses dominate the local economy – which is to say, most of the rest of the U.S. – an increase in productivity would lead companies to be more profitable, which could lead to locals having higher earnings. Even nonfans see benefits when their neighbors are happier, spending more and working harder.

No matter how the Super Bowl turns out, both the Philadelphia and Kansas City metropolitan areas have already won, as both fans and nonfans in each region stand to benefit from higher incomes.

This article is republished from The Conversation, a nonprofit, independent news organization bringing you facts and trustworthy analysis to help you make sense of our complex world. It was written by: Michael Davis, Missouri University of Science and Technology

Read more:

• The Super Bowl’s evolution from football game to entertainment extravaganza
• Ads, food and gambling galore − 5 essential reads for the Super Bowl
• Sports gambling creates a windfall, but raises questions of integrity – here are three lessons from historic sports-betting scandals

Michael Davis does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Feature Image: People celebrate following the Philadelphia Eagles’ NFC championship win on Jan. 26, 2025. Thomas Hengge/Anadolu via Getty Images

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President Donald Trump has unveiled his American priorities, which include measures addressing border security, economic policies, government restructuring, and social values. While the policies aim to bolster what the administration calls “American values and safety,” they carry profound implications for Black Americans and other marginalized communities.

Border Security and Immigration

The president plans to reinstate hardline immigration policies, including ending “catch-and-release,” reinstating the “Remain in Mexico” program and expanding the border wall. The proposed suspension of refugee resettlement could disproportionately affect Black migrants from African and Caribbean nations who seek asylum in the U.S. Increased deportation operations targeting undocumented immigrants, including those with minor infractions, may further contribute to fears of racial profiling and discrimination in Black and immigrant communities.

Additionally, deploying the military, including the National Guard, to the border raises concerns about the militarization of immigration enforcement. The designation of certain cartels as foreign terrorist organizations could lead to broader enforcement measures that risk overreach and collateral harm to immigrant populations, many of whom are Black.

Economic and Energy Policies

Trump’s plan to “Make America Affordable and Energy Dominant Again” centers on reducing costs through expanded energy production and deregulation. While these measures aim to lower living expenses, they could have mixed consequences for Black Americans. Communities of color often bear the brunt of environmental harm caused by deregulated industries and fossil fuel expansion, raising questions about long-term health and environmental justice.

The administration’s withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord and rejection of renewable energy investments could also slow progress in creating green jobs, an industry where Black workers have begun to gain traction.

Government Reform

In his pledge to “Drain the Swamp,” Trump proposes freezing hiring in non-essential areas of the federal workforce, with a specific focus on reducing Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) initiatives. This could result in fewer opportunities for Black professionals and reduced attention to addressing systemic inequities in federal agencies.

Plans to reduce remote work among federal employees could disproportionately affect Black workers, who often rely on flexible arrangements to manage systemic disparities such as longer commutes and caregiving responsibilities.

Social Policies

Under “Bring Back American Values,” the president has vowed to uphold traditional gender definitions and push back against what he terms “radical gender ideology.” While the policy may resonate with some, critics argue it risks undermining protections for LGBTQ+ individuals, including Black transgender and nonbinary people who already face high levels of discrimination and violence.

Additionally, the administration’s promise to rename American landmarks to “appropriately honor” U.S. history raises concerns about erasing the recognition of Black leaders and historical figures in public spaces.

Implications for Black Americans

Trump’s America First agenda presents a mix of challenges for Black communities. Policies targeting immigration, environmental regulations, and government reform could exacerbate existing inequities, while the rollback of DEI programs threatens to stall progress toward racial justice.

As the administration prepares to implement these policies, the impact on Black Americans will depend on how federal and state agencies carry out the president’s vision. Critics warn that many of these proposals risk further marginalizing Black communities in an era of increasing social and economic disparities.

“No administration can ignore the lasting impact of its policies on communities already fighting systemic barriers,” a Civil Rights advocate said.

Feature Image: President Donald Trump. Provided by BlackPressUSA

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By Joshua F.J. Inwood, Penn State

More than 50 years after the assassination of Martin Luther King Jr., the United States remains divided by issues of race and racism, economic inequality as well as unequal access to justice. These issues are stopping the country from developing into the kind of society that Martin Luther King, Jr. fought for during his years as a civil rights activist.

As a result King’s words and work are still relevant. I study the civil rights movement and the field of peace geographies. Peace geographies thinks about how different groups of people approach and work toward building the kind of peaceful society King worked to create. Americans faced similar crises related to the broader civil rights struggles in the 1960s.

So, what can the past tell us about healing the nation? Specifically, how can we address divisions along race, class and political lines?

Martin Luther King Jr.’s understanding of the role of love in engaging individuals and communities in conflict is crucial today. For King, love was not sentimental. It demanded that individuals tell their oppressors what they were doing was wrong.

King’s vision

King spent his public career working toward ending segregation and fighting racial discrimination. For many people the pinnacle of this work occurred in Washington, D.C., when he delivered his famous “I Have a Dream” speech.

Less well-known and often ignored is his later work on behalf of poor people. In fact, when King was assassinated in Memphis he was in the midst of building toward a national march on Washington, D.C., that would have brought together tens of thousands of economically disenfranchised people to advocate for policies that would reduce poverty. This effort – known as the “Poor People’s Campaign” – aimed to dramatically shift national priorities to address the health and welfare of working people.

Scholars such as Derek Alderman, Paul Kingsbury and Owen Dwyer how King’s work can be applied in today’s context. They argue that calling attention to the civil rights movement, can “change the way students understand themselves in relation to the larger project of civil rights.” And in understanding the civil rights movement, students and the broader public can see its contemporary significance.

Idea of love

King focused on the role of love as key to building healthy communities and the ways in which love can and should be at the center of our social interactions.

King’s final book, “Where Do We Go From Here: Chaos or Community?” published in the year before his assassination, provides his most expansive vision of an inclusive, diverse and economically equitable U.S. nation. For King, love is a key part of creating communities that work for everyone and not just the few at the expense of the many.

Love was not a mushy or easily dismissed emotion, but was central to the kind of community he envisioned. King made distinctions between three forms of love which are key to the human experience: “eros,” “philia” and most importantly “agape.”

For King, eros is a form of love that is most closely associated with desire, while philia is often the love that is experienced between very good friends or family. These visions are different from agape.

Agape, which was at the center of the movement he was building, was the moral imperative to engage with one’s oppressor in a way that showed the oppressor the ways their actions dehumanize and detract from society. He said,

“In speaking of love we are not referring to some sentimental emotion. It would be nonsense to urge men to love their oppressors in an affectionate sense[…] When we speak of loving those who oppose us […] we speak of a love which is expressed in the Greek word Agape. Agape means nothing sentimental or basically affectionate; it means understanding, redeeming goodwill for all men, an overflowing love which seeks nothing in return.”

King further defined agape when he argued at the University of California at Berkeley that the concept of agape “stands at the center of the movement we are to carry on in the Southland.” It was a love that demanded that one stand up for oneself and tells those who oppress that what they were doing was wrong.

Why this matters now

In the face of violence directed at minority communities and of deepening political divisions in the country, King’s words and philosophy are perhaps more critical for us today than at any point in the recent past.

As King noted, all persons exist in an interrelated community and all are dependent on each other. By connecting love to community, King argued there were opportunities to build a more just and economically sustainable society which respected difference. As he said,

“Agape is a willingness to go to any length to restore community… Therefore if I respond to hate with a reciprocal hate I do nothing but intensify the cleavages of a broken community.”

King outlined a vision in which we are compelled to work toward making our communities inclusive. They reflect the broad values of equality and democracy. Through an engagement with one another as its foundation, agape provides opportunities to work toward common goals.

Building a community today

At a time when the nation feels so divided, there is a need to bring back King’s vision of agape-fueled community building and begin a difficult conversation about where we are as a nation and where we want to go. It would move us past simply seeing the other side as being wholly motivated by hate.

Engaging in a conversation through agape signals a willingness to restore broken communities and to approach difference with an open mind.

This is an updated version of an article originally published on Nov. 16, 2016.

Joshua F.J. Inwood is a member of the American Association of Geographers

This article is republished from The Conversation, a nonprofit, independent news organization bringing you facts and trustworthy analysis to help you make sense of our complex world. It was written by: Joshua F.J. Inwood, Penn State

Read more:

• Political assassinations were once unthinkable. Why the US killing of Soleimani sets a worrying precedent
• Martin Luther King Jr. in dialogue with the ancient Greeks
• What shaped King’s prophetic vision?

Joshua F.J. Inwood is a member of the American Association of Geographers.

Feature Image: Provided

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By D. Brian Blank, Mississippi State University and Brandy Hadley, Appalachian State University

Brian Blank is a finance scholar and Fed watcher who researches how companies navigate downturns and make financial decisions, as well as how markets process information. Brandy Hadley is a finance professor who leads a student-managed investment fund and studies corporate decision-making and incentives. Together, they’re also the resident economic oracles at The Conversation U.S., and their forecast for 2024 held up notably well. Here, they explain what to expect from 2025.

New year, new questions

Heading into 2024, we said the U.S. economy would likely continue growing, in spite of pundits’ forecast that a recession would strike. The past year showcased strong economic growth, moderating inflation, and efficiency gains, leading most economists and the financial press to stop expecting a downturn.

But what economists call “soft landings” – when an economy slows just enough to curb inflation, but not enough to cause a recession – are only soft until they aren’t.

As we turn to 2025, we’re optimistic the economy will keep growing. But that’s not without some caveats. Here are the key questions and risks we’re watching as the U.S. rings in the new year.

The Federal Reserve and interest rates

Some people expected a downturn in 2022 – and again in 2023 and 2024 – due to the Federal Reserve’s hawkish interest-rate decisions. The Fed raised rates rapidly in 2022 and held them high throughout 2023 and much of 2024. But in the last four months of 2024, the Fed slashed rates three times – most recently on Dec. 18.

While the recent rate cuts mark a strategic shift, the pace of future cuts is expected to slow in 2024, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested at the December meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. Markets have expected this change of pace for some time, but some economists remain concerned about heightened risks of an economic slowdown.

When Fed policymakers set short-term interest rates, they consider whether inflation and unemployment are too high or low, which affects whether they should stimulate the economy or pump the brakes. The interest rate that neither stimulates nor restricts economic activity, often referred to as R* or the neutral rate, is unknown, which makes the Fed’s job challenging.

However, the terminal rate – which is where Fed policymakers expect rates will settle in for the long run – is now at 3%, which is the highest since 2016. This has led futures markets to wonder if a hiking cycle may be coming into focus, while others ask if the era of low rates is over.

Inflation and economic uncertainty

This shift in the Federal Reserve’s approach underscores a key uncertainty for 2025: While some economists are concerned the recent uptick in unemployment may continue, others worry about sticky inflation. The Fed’s challenge will be striking the right balance — continuing to support economic activity while ensuring inflation, currently hovering around 2.4%, doesn’t reignite.

We do anticipate that interest rates will stay elevated amid slowing inflation, which remains above the Fed’s 2% target rate. Still, we’re optimistic this high-rate environment won’t weigh too heavily on consumers and the economy.

While gross domestic product growth for the third quarter was revised up to 3.1% and the fourth quarter is projected to grow similarly quickly, in 2025 it could finally show signs of slowing from its recent pace. However, we expect it to continue to exceed consensus forecasts of 2.2% and longer-run expectations of 2%.

Fiscal policy, tariffs and tax cuts: risks or tailwinds?

While inflation has declined from 9.1% in June 2022 to less than 3%, the Federal Reserve’s 2% target remains elusive.

Amid this backdrop, several new risks loom on the horizon. Key among them are potential tariff increases, which could disrupt trade, push up the prices of goods and even strengthen the U.S. dollar.

The average effective U.S. tariff rate is 2%, but even a fivefold increase to 10% could escalate trade tensions, create economic challenges and complicate inflation forecasts. Consider that, historically, every 1% increase in tariff rates has resulted in a 0.1% higher annual inflation rate, on average.

Still, we hope tariffs serve as more of a negotiating tactic for the incoming administration than an actual policy proposal.

Tariffs are just one of several proposals from the incoming Trump administration that present further uncertainty. Stricter immigration policies could create labor shortages and increase prices, while government spending cuts could weigh down economic growth.

Tax cuts – a likely policy focus – may offset some risk and spur growth, especially if coupled with productivity-enhancing investments. However, tax cuts may also result in a growing budget deficit, which is another risk to the longer-term economic outlook.

Count us as two financial economists hoping only certain inflation measures fall slower than expected, and everyone’s expectations for future inflation remain low. If so, the Federal Reserve should be able to look beyond short-term changes in inflation and focus on metrics that are more useful for predicting long-term inflation.

Consumer behavior and the job market

Labor markets have softened but remain resilient.

Hiring rates are normalizing, while layoffs and unemployment – 4.2%, up from 3.7% at the start of 2024 – remain low despite edging up. The U.S. economy could remain resilient into 2025, with continued growth in real incomes bolstering purchasing power. This income growth has supported consumer sentiment and reduced inequality, since low-income households have seen the greatest benefits.

However, elevated debt balances, given increased consumer spending, suggest some Americans are under financial stress even though income growth has outpaced increases in consumer debt.

While a higher unemployment rate is a concern, this risk to date appears limited, potentially due to labor hoarding – which is when employers are afraid to let go of employees they no longer require due to the difficulty in hiring new workers. Higher unemployment is also an issue the Fed has the tools to address – if it must.

This leaves us cautiously optimistic that resilient consumers will continue to retain jobs, supporting their growing purchasing power.

Equities and financial markets

The outlook for 2025 remains promising, with continued economic growth driven by resilient consumer spending, steadying labor markets, and less restrictive monetary policy.

Yet current price targets for stocks are at historic highs for a post-rally period, which is surprising and may offer reasons for caution. Higher-for-longer interest rates could put pressure on corporate debt levels and rate-sensitive sectors, such as housing and utilities.

Corporate earnings, however, remain strong, buoyed by cost savings and productivity gains. Stock performance may be subdued, but underperforming or discounted stocks could rebound, presenting opportunities for gains in 2025.

Artificial intelligence provides a bright spot, leading to recent outperformance in the tech-heavy NASDAQ and related investments. And onshoring continues to provide growth opportunities for companies reshaping supply chains to meet domestic demand.

To be fair, uncertainty persists, and economists know forecasting is for the weather. That’s why investors should always remain well-diversified.

But with inflation closer to the Fed’s target and wages rising faster than inflation, we’re optimistic that continued economic growth will pave the way for a financially positive year ahead.

Here’s hoping we get even more right about 2025 than we did this past year.

This article is republished from The Conversation, a nonprofit, independent news organization bringing you facts and trustworthy analysis to help you make sense of our complex world. It was written by: D. Brian Blank, Mississippi State University and Brandy Hadley, Appalachian State University

Read more:

• How do credit scores work? 2 finance professors explain how lenders choose who gets loans and at what interest rate
• Insider trading − the legal kind − is a lot more profitable if you work for a multinational company
• Market trust at stake: What the Supreme Court’s ruling in SEC v. Jarkesy means for investors

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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Photo by Andrea Piacquadio from Pexels

By Kate Tepe

The Women’s Fund

The Women’s Fund has released a report outlining the historic and contemporary barriers preventing Black women from economic self-sufficiency.

In the Greater Cincinnati area, Black female workers’ median annual earnings were approximately $24,100 in 2018. That means this group makes on average 36 percent lower than median annual earnings across all workers in the area. The Women’s Fund of the Greater Cincinnati Foundation wanted to understand why exactly there was such a large discrepancy and has spent the last two years working with key partners to conduct a deep dive into why this occurs.

This research project aligns directly with the Economic Development and Political Awareness & Involvement Programmatic Thrusts of the Cincinnati Alumnae & Cincinnati Queen City Alumnae Chapters of Delta Sigma Theta, in addition to the Delta Gateway Foundation so much that they have collectively provided funding to support the release of this report.

“It is our hope that once armed with this information we can elevate our economic programming and more effectively address economic mobility within our community,” says Mia Sears President, Cincinnati Queen City Alumnae Chapter

The Women’s Fund will examine the current economic factors and external conditions to economic mobility for Black women, with the goal to drive specific solutions and policy changes to improve the economic reality for women of color in our area. This research project will be delivered in a three-part release throughout 2020 -2021:

1. A literature review examining the historical roots of occupational segregation, compensation and gender norms in the job sector.
2. A quantitative analysis to take a deeper dive into these jobs to establish a baseline of their current economic status in our community. The analysis will examine occupations, wages, education, entrepreneurship, debt and the current economic mobility track for Black women.
3. A series of interviews with dozens of Black women in the Cincinnati area at all socioeconomic levels to understand how we can best build with their strengths to achieve more economic mobility.

This research project will guide the Women’s Fund, these three entities and other community partners, as gender and racial equity continues to be a focus in the Cincinnati region.

“We are so grateful for the support of Delta Sigma Theta and the Delta Gateway Foundation,” said Meghan Cummings, executive director of the Women’s Fund. “Uncovering this information, will help us continue to strengthen the ecosystem for women in Greater Cincinnati.” 

The Women’s Fund of the Greater Cincinnati Foundation leads our community in ensuring the economic self-sufficiency of women in our region. Through leadership, research and policy advocacy, the Women’s Fund works to identify and address the barriers affecting working women and their families. Learn more and get involved at www.cincinnatiwomensfund.org

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